The European Union’s financial and military support for Ukraine is facing a growing test as Russia intensifies its attacks, damages critical infrastructure and deepens the economic pressure on Kyiv. European officials are increasingly concerned that existing funding commitments may not be enough to sustain Ukraine through a war that is lasting longer than many had expected.
“This war will last longer than we thought,” one European diplomat said, speaking anonymously. The diplomat acknowledged that Ukraine’s needs would continue to grow, although EU governments had yet to agree on how to meet them.
Another diplomat insisted that the bloc must maintain a united position. “We must send a clear message that the EU won’t change its position and will double down on its support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia,” the diplomat said.
The debate is unfolding as Russian attacks continue to hit civilian areas and essential infrastructure across Ukraine. Railways, bridges, cargo vessels, power stations, data centres, warehouses, medical facilities, schools and kindergartens have come under fire, alongside the National Academy of Sciences.
The attacks have combined ballistic missiles, drones and other aerial weapons, killing civilians and disrupting daily life. In Kramatorsk, more than 30 people were reported killed after a Russian glide bomb attack set two public buses ablaze, according to the source report. Kyiv was also plunged into darkness on Thursday, raising further concerns about the country’s ability to protect its electricity supply as winter approaches.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attacks as “terror against people and life” and called on international leaders not to ignore the situation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed solidarity with Ukraine, describing the attacks as war crimes.
The continuing bombardment is also damaging an economy already under severe strain. Repeated air raids interrupt business operations, force companies to close temporarily, increase the cost of materials and reduce profits. Each new wave of attacks makes it harder for businesses to operate normally and for the government to maintain public services while financing the war.
Ukraine’s agricultural sector faces additional pressure from Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea. Restrictions on maritime trade have made it harder for Ukrainian farmers to deliver grain to international markets, threatening export earnings that are important to the country’s economy and public finances.
These developments are raising questions about whether the European Union’s existing financial commitments can cover Ukraine’s needs over the coming years. The central concern is a 90 billion euro loan agreed by EU leaders to cover about two-thirds of Ukraine’s funding requirements for 2026 and 2027.
The arrangement was developed on the expectation that the war might end during 2026. Russia’s latest escalation has weakened that assumption, increasing the likelihood that Ukraine will need substantial international assistance beyond the period originally envisaged.
Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has warned that preparing the 2027 budget will be particularly difficult. He has called on international donors to help cover a projected funding gap of $78 billion, equivalent to around 70 billion euros, according to the source report.
The European Commission has not endorsed that full estimate. Its planned contribution through the support loan is 45 billion euros for 2027, and it has pledged to accelerate payments, subject to Ukraine meeting internal reform requirements.
” For 2027, the picture is indeed more challenging,” Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday after a meeting of finance ministers. He acknowledged that Ukraine faced a substantial funding gap, while noting that officials were still working to establish its exact size.
Despite the growing concerns, Brussels has not formally reopened negotiations on additional support. EU governments are already facing difficult discussions over the bloc’s next long-term budget, making it harder to secure agreement on another major financial commitment.
The political environment is also becoming less favourable for new spending. Several European countries are dealing with rising debt and weak economic growth, while far-right parties have increasingly challenged continued assistance to Ukraine. The absence of US aid, which previously played a major role in supplying weapons and other support, adds to the pressure on European governments.
Some EU countries want to revisit the possibility of using frozen Russian state assets to help finance Ukraine’s defence and recovery. Supporters argue that the existing 90 billion euro loan will not meet the country’s needs if the war continues at its current intensity.
The proposal faces significant resistance. Belgium, where a large share of the immobilised Russian assets is held, has raised objections, while France and Italy remain reluctant to support the approach. The disagreement reflects concerns over the legal, financial and political consequences of taking a step that could set an important precedent.
European officials also remember the failure of an earlier attempt to develop an asset-backed financing arrangement. A senior diplomat said there was still some interest in the idea but acknowledged that no substantial new proposal was currently on the table.
Issuing more joint EU debt is another possible route, but it has become politically harder to pursue as borrowing costs rise. A further increase in shared debt could prove difficult to sell to governments already facing pressure over their own public finances.
Increasing direct contributions from individual member states would be more straightforward, but it could place a disproportionate burden on a relatively small group of wealthy countries, including Germany, the Netherlands and Nordic nations. That prospect could create fresh divisions within the bloc over how the cost of supporting Ukraine should be shared.
Brussels is therefore looking beyond the EU for additional assistance, urging partners such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan to contribute more as European governments consider their next steps.
Dombrovskis said the Commission was examining other possibilities and remained committed to ensuring Ukraine received the funding it needed for as long as necessary. However, the growing gap between Ukraine’s projected requirements and the support already promised is forcing European leaders to confront a difficult question: how to sustain their commitment to Kyiv if the war continues without a clear end in sight.
