International tourism grew by just 0.4% in the first half of 2026, with around 690 million people travelling across international borders between January and June, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism. The figure represents about 3 million more international arrivals than during the same period in 2025, but the modest increase masks a clear loss of momentum as geopolitical tensions, higher travel costs and disruptions to air connectivity began to affect demand.
The global picture changed considerably during the six-month period. International arrivals increased by 2% in the first quarter, but fell by 1% in the second quarter. April recorded a 3% decline, partly reflecting the timing of Easter, which began in March this year, as well as the effects of the conflict in the Middle East.
The slowdown became more pronounced in June, when international arrivals fell by 3% globally. Western Europe recorded a 6% decline during the month, with UN Tourism pointing in part to the effects of a heatwave affecting some destinations.
South-East Asia also experienced weaker demand. International arrivals in the sub-region were down 5% in June, with weaker demand from Asian markets combining with geopolitical tensions, disruption to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs. Parts of Oceania recorded a 6% decline during the month, with Typhoon Sinlaku contributing to the disruption during the second quarter.
The figures illustrate how quickly events in one part of the world can affect tourism markets much farther away. The Middle East conflict has had consequences not only for destinations directly involved, but also for airlines, connecting routes, travel costs and consumer confidence in other international markets.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the sector was continuing to grow despite the pressure, but described that growth as fragile. She also pointed to the wider lesson from the disruption, arguing that tourism destinations need to strengthen resilience before crises occur rather than waiting until they are already facing them.
Regional performance has been uneven. Africa recorded 4% growth in international arrivals during the first half of 2026, while Europe increased by 3%. The Americas recorded a 2% rise, although results differed considerably between individual sub-regions.
Asia and the Pacific posted 1% growth compared with the first half of 2025, but international arrivals remained 11% below their 2019 level. UN Tourism attributed some of the continuing gap to weaker air connectivity, higher air fares and uncertainty affecting travel within the region.
Within Asia and the Pacific, North-East Asia recorded 3% growth during the first six months of the year. South Asia, however, saw arrivals fall by 5%, while South-East Asia declined by 1%.
The sharpest regional contraction was recorded in the Middle East itself. International arrivals fell by 22% during the first half of 2026 as the region was directly affected by the conflict.
The disruption to aviation began to ease during May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire. Some air routes reopened, helping travel conditions recover in parts of the region. The improvement in consumer sentiment, however, was uneven, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding the conflict and its wider economic effects.
The new figures have also changed expectations for the tourism industry for the remainder of the year. UN Tourism now expects international tourist arrivals to increase by between 1% and 2% globally in 2026. That is below the organization’s January forecast of 3% to 4%.
The revised outlook remains dependent on how the geopolitical situation develops, particularly the duration of the conflict and its potential impact on oil prices and inflation. Higher energy costs can feed directly into air fares and other travel expenses, putting additional pressure on consumers deciding whether and where to travel.
For travellers, the economic environment is already shaping those decisions. UN Tourism expects international visitors to continue placing greater emphasis on value for money, with some choosing destinations closer to home or opting for domestic travel instead of longer international trips.
That shift could create different opportunities across the global tourism market. Destinations able to offer competitive prices, reliable transport connections and experiences that justify the cost of a trip may continue to attract demand even as travellers become more cautious about spending.
The first half of 2026 therefore presents a tourism industry that is still expanding, but at a much slower pace than previously expected. The overall increase in international arrivals shows that global travel demand has not disappeared. At the same time, the sharp differences between regions and the monthly declines recorded during the second quarter show how exposed international tourism remains to conflict, weather events, aviation disruptions and the cost of travelling.
For destinations and tourism businesses, the remainder of the year is likely to depend not only on people’s desire to travel, but also on whether they can afford to do so and how confident they feel about travelling across increasingly uncertain international routes.
