Purchasing power in Finland is moving in sharply different directions depending on household income, with the lowest-income households still losing ground while the highest-income group is expected to see further gains in 2026.
A new analysis by the Labour Institute for Economic Research (Labore) estimates that purchasing power in the lowest income decile will fall by 3.5 percent this year. At the other end of the income distribution, purchasing power is projected to rise by 2.2 percent.
The difference becomes considerably larger when the comparison is extended back to 2023. Over the 2023-2026 period, purchasing power in the lowest income decile is estimated to decline by 5.4 percent, while it increases by 10.8 percent in the highest decile. That amounts to a gap of more than 16 percentage points between the two groups.
The figures challenge the idea of a broad recovery in household finances. While purchasing power is improving for much of the income distribution, the gains are not reaching everyone equally. Labore’s analysis shows that purchasing power also falls in the second-lowest income decile in 2026, by 1.6 percent, and in the third-lowest decile, by 0.2 percent.
Milla Nyyssola, Labore’s chief researcher and the author of the analysis, said the growing divide is mainly linked to differences in income development rather than differences in prices. According to Labore, differences in price developments account for only about half a percentage point of the gap between the lowest and highest income deciles over the longer period.
That distinction matters because the term “purchasing power” can suggest that inflation alone determines whether households are better or worse off. Labore’s calculations instead point to the development of disposable cash income as the main factor behind the widening difference.
The institute describes the pattern as unusual when viewed against Finland’s longer economic history. During the period of economic growth following the recession of the 1990s, income growth also differed considerably between groups. But even then, purchasing power in the lowest income decile did not fall, according to Labore’s historical comparison.
The divide is also visible when households are grouped by living arrangements. Between 2023 and 2026, purchasing power among people living in rented housing is estimated to increase by 1.7 percent, compared with roughly 7.5 percent among people living in owner-occupied homes. Single-parent households are expected to see an increase of only about 1 percent over the same period.
The picture is not uniform among older people either. For those aged 65 and over, purchasing power is estimated to rise by around 7 percent between 2023 and 2026. However, it is projected to decline by approximately 0.6 percent between 2025 and 2026.
The figures come as household sentiment about the economy remains fragile. Statistics Finland’s September consumer confidence data show the consumer confidence indicator falling to -4.9, from -3.0 in August. The long-term average is -2.9. The September survey was based on responses from 1,157 people living in Finland collected between September 1 and 17.
Consumers were particularly cautious about their own financial situation. Twenty-eight percent said their own finances were worse than a year earlier, while 25 percent said they were better. Views of the wider economy were more negative: half of respondents considered Finland’s economic situation weaker than a year earlier, compared with 18 percent who considered it stronger.
Concern about employment also remains part of the picture. Among employed respondents, 27 percent said their personal risk of unemployment or temporary lay-off had increased, while 36 percent said they did not feel threatened by unemployment or lay-off. Expectations for unemployment across Finland were around the long-term average, but 44 percent expected unemployment to increase over the coming year.
Consumers also continued to perceive prices as relatively high. In September, respondents estimated that consumer prices had risen by 4.9 percent over the previous year and expected prices to increase by another 4.1 percent over the following 12 months. Only 15 percent considered the time favourable for buying durable goods, while 37 percent expected to reduce their spending on such goods during the next year.
Taken together, the data describe an economic recovery that looks very different depending on where a household sits in the income distribution. For higher-income households, purchasing power is moving upward. For the lowest-income households, the decline has continued into 2026 and follows several years of deterioration.
Labore’s estimates are based on Statistics Finland’s SISU microsimulation model and a register-based sample representing the Finnish population. Purchasing power is measured using equivalised disposable income, which adjusts disposable income for household size and composition, and is then adjusted for differences in prices across income groups. The 2026 estimate combines observed price development from the beginning of the year with Labore’s inflation forecast.
The result is a picture of Finland’s household economy in which an improving average does not necessarily mean that living standards are improving for everyone. The strongest gains are concentrated among higher-income groups, while the lowest-income households continue to face declining purchasing power. For many households, the question is therefore not simply whether Finland’s economy is recovering, but whether that recovery is reaching them at all.
