Oil companies made an estimated €36 billion in additional margins from petrol and diesel sales across the European Union between March 1 and October 19, as the US-Iran conflict disrupted oil supplies and pushed up fuel prices, according to a report commissioned by Greenpeace Germany.
The findings have renewed calls for an EU-wide windfall tax on oil companies, with several European governments arguing that extraordinary profits should help offset the higher energy costs facing households and businesses. However, EU energy ministers discussed possible measures to reduce energy bills on October 29 without reaching an agreement on a new tax.
Greenpeace calculated that oil companies generated an additional €154.4 million a day during the period examined. Diesel accounted for the largest share, at approximately €28.2 billion, while petrol contributed almost €7.8 billion. The estimates are based on the difference between crude oil prices and the net prices of refined fuels, rather than simply the increase in companies’ overall revenues.
The report points to a wider problem facing Europe: its continued dependence on imported fossil fuels. According to Noah Gordon, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, oil, gas and coal account for nearly 60% of the EU’s total final energy consumption, while the bloc produces relatively little of these resources domestically.
Renewable energy is gradually reducing the role of gas in electricity generation, said Ben McWilliams, an affiliate fellow at Bruegel. However, the transition has been slower in other areas. Petrol and diesel remain dominant in road transport, while natural gas continues to play a major role in home heating. This leaves households and businesses exposed when international conflicts disrupt supplies and push up fuel costs.
The Greenpeace report identifies oil producers and refinery operators as major beneficiaries of the higher margins. The largest gains occur when the cost of producing or purchasing crude oil rises less sharply than the prices companies receive for refined products such as diesel and petrol. The difference can increase the amount companies earn from each litre of fuel sold.
Recent financial results from major oil companies have also drawn attention to the industry’s earnings. Shell reported earnings of $10.81 billion for the third quarter of 2026, almost double the $5.43 billion recorded in the same period of 2025 and above analysts’ estimate of $10.33 billion. TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.1 billion for July to September, compared with $4 billion a year earlier. BP recorded net income of $8.46 billion in the third quarter, its highest quarterly figure since 2008, when earnings reached $8.9 billion.
Oil companies, however, reject the suggestion that their higher earnings amount to profiteering at consumers’ expense. Their argument is that rising crude oil prices and higher operating costs have increased the cost of supplying fuel, forcing them to charge more at the pump.
There is some evidence behind that explanation. Gordon noted that Europe’s refining capacity has become a significant factor in rising fuel prices. The difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products, known as the crack spread, has tripled in Europe since the start of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
However, higher crude oil prices do not explain the entire increase in fuel prices. Gordon argues that companies are also benefiting from wider profit margins, beyond simply passing on the additional cost of buying oil.
Greenpeace’s calculations support that concern. Between the start of the conflict and October 19, pre-tax diesel prices in the EU increased by 22.7 euro cents per litre more than crude oil prices. For petrol, the difference was 13.3 cents per litre. The report also found no significant increase in other costs, including refining, production and distribution, that would fully explain the additional price increases.
The financial impact has varied considerably across Europe. Germany recorded the largest combined additional margins from petrol and diesel, at just under €6.7 billion during the period studied. France followed with €5.7 billion, Italy with almost €5.1 billion and Spain with more than €4.7 billion.
Germany also recorded the highest daily additional margins, at €28.7 million, followed by France at €24.6 million and Italy at €21.7 million.
The differences become more noticeable when margins are measured per litre. Sweden recorded the highest additional diesel margins at 27.4 cents per litre, followed by Spain at 26.6 cents and Slovenia at 25.4 cents. For petrol, Denmark led with 18.4 cents per litre, ahead of Germany at 16.9 cents and Spain at 15.5 cents.
Government intervention appears to have influenced how much of the increase reached consumers in some countries. Matteo Prina, research group leader at the Institute for Renewable Energy at Eurac Research, said countries that fixed or capped fuel prices, including Malta, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia, recorded an average increase of €0.38 per litre in pre-tax diesel prices. In countries without such measures, the average increase was €0.57.
However, price controls do not necessarily prevent higher refining margins. Belgium and Luxembourg also regulate fuel prices, but their maximum prices are linked to wholesale prices. This means increases in refining margins can still be reflected in the prices consumers pay.
Prina also questioned whether fuel tax reductions always benefit motorists as intended. He observed that pre-tax fuel prices rose by similar amounts in countries that reduced fuel taxes and those that did not, raising the possibility that some of the financial relief was absorbed by higher industry margins instead of being passed on to consumers.
Price controls can also create supply problems. Slovakia and Slovenia, for example, had to introduce fuel rationing at petrol stations, illustrating the difficulties governments can face when trying to keep prices down during periods of disruption.
European governments have several options for reducing the pressure on consumers, including temporary tax cuts and subsidies. But these measures have limitations. McWilliams warned that reducing energy taxes or providing public subsidies largely transfers the cost from energy consumers to taxpayers. It does little to address Europe’s underlying dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels.
An alternative is to target the extraordinary profits generated during the crisis. Six EU countries, including Germany, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Italy and Poland, have previously called for a windfall tax on energy companies. Some governments have already introduced national measures. Portugal, for example, applies a 33% tax to extraordinary profits made by oil production and refining companies in 2026.
There is also a precedent at EU level. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the resulting energy price crisis, the European Union introduced a temporary solidarity contribution on certain energy companies. It set a minimum rate of 33% on taxable profits exceeding the average annual taxable profits recorded since 2018 by more than 20%. According to a European Commission report, the measure raised almost €29 billion.
A new EU-wide levy could follow a similar approach, although the details would need to be agreed by member states. One alternative proposed by Prina is to tax the gross margin earned per litre through refining and fuel trading when it exceeds an established reference level. Such margins could be monitored weekly, allowing authorities to identify unusually high returns without relying solely on companies’ annual financial results.
The debate is therefore not only about whether oil companies should pay more tax. It also concerns how Europe responds when international conflicts expose the financial risks of relying heavily on imported fossil fuels. For governments facing pressure to protect households from rising energy bills, the challenge is to ensure that temporary relief reaches consumers without simply transferring the cost elsewhere or creating further problems in fuel supply.
