Global travel is expected to reach a record 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026, with Europe forecast to record 5% growth despite geopolitical tensions, higher airfares and rising living costs. The latest figures suggest that demand for international holidays remains strong, although travellers are becoming more selective about where they go and how much they spend.
According to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, international arrivals worldwide are projected to increase by 2% compared with 2025. Total visitor nights, covering both domestic and international travel, are expected to reach 23.9 billion. Spending at destinations is also forecast to rise by 9% to $7.8 trillion (€6.97 trillion).
The report was released on the opening day of World Travel Market (WTM) London at ExCeL. It was produced by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, using data covering more than 185 countries.
The forecast comes at a time when the global travel industry continues to face pressure from higher transport costs, regional conflicts and household budget constraints. However, these challenges have not significantly reduced people’s desire to travel. The report found that three in four consumers still consider taking leisure trips every year an important priority.
Instead, many travellers are adjusting their plans, including choosing destinations closer to home and reconsidering the cost and distance of their holidays.
“Travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before,” said Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA at Tourism Economics, in the report.
He noted that leisure travel continues to receive a significant share of consumer spending, even as people respond to economic pressures and ongoing disruption by changing their travel choices. The industry, he said, remains on course for another record year.
Europe is among the regions expected to benefit from these changing preferences. International overnight arrivals across the continent are forecast to grow by 5% in 2026, exceeding the projected global growth rate.
The report points to a growing preference for regional travel. Trips within the same geographical region are expected to increase by 3% worldwide this year, while travel between different regions, including long-haul journeys, is forecast to decline by 3%.
The difference reflects the financial and practical challenges facing international travellers. Higher oil prices have contributed to inflation and increased travel costs, while reduced capacity through major Gulf aviation hubs and concerns about safety have affected some long-distance routes.
The Middle East is expected to experience the sharpest decline, with international arrivals forecast to fall by 40% in 2026. The downturn highlights how quickly geopolitical developments can affect tourism demand, particularly in destinations and aviation markets exposed to regional instability.
Europe’s position is also supported by its established role in international leisure tourism. It remains the world’s largest destination region for international leisure visitor nights, which are expected to increase by 4% in 2026.
The outlook for 2027 is considerably stronger. Global international arrivals are forecast to grow by 8%, with travel between regions expected to recover by 11% as some of the current disruptions ease.
Europe is projected to maintain 5% growth in international arrivals next year. The Middle East could experience a 43% rebound, although arrivals would still remain below the region’s 2025 level.
These projections depend partly on the international security situation. The report warns that continuing geopolitical tensions or renewed conflict could delay the expected recovery and affect travel demand.
Beyond the immediate outlook, Europe is expected to record the largest absolute increase in international arrivals of any world region between 2026 and 2032. The continent could welcome an additional 226 million annual international arrivals over that period, representing average yearly growth of approximately 4%.
Worldwide, international overnight arrivals are projected to reach 2.2 billion by 2032. Rising incomes, the continued importance of leisure travel in household budgets and the expansion of aviation and accommodation capacity are among the factors expected to support this growth.
Spending figures also point to Europe’s importance in the global tourism economy. Total leisure spending by domestic and international visitors across the continent is forecast to reach $2.05 trillion (€1.83 trillion) in 2026.
International leisure spending in Europe is expected to increase by 11%, while spending by domestic travellers is projected to rise by 8%. International visitors account for approximately one-third of the region’s leisure spending, giving Europe the highest international share among the three largest regional markets: Europe, Asia and North America.
The spending projections are expressed in nominal US dollars and have not been adjusted for inflation, an important distinction when comparing growth with changes in the actual purchasing power of visitors.
The latest forecasts point to a travel industry that continues to expand despite economic and political uncertainty. For Europe, the expected increase in arrivals and visitor spending reinforces its position as a major international tourism market, while the longer-term projections suggest that demand could continue growing substantially through 2032.
