Food prices in Europe are beginning to rise again, but the increase is far from equal across the continent. While grocery inflation remains relatively modest in several major economies, fresh food is becoming noticeably more expensive in countries such as France and Italy. In southern Italy, recent supply disruptions have also left some supermarket shelves short of basic goods, adding to concerns about the cost of everyday shopping.
The situation became particularly visible in southern Italy in late October, when shoppers in Naples and other parts of the region encountered partially empty supermarket shelves. For around two weeks, lorry drivers protesting against rising diesel costs blocked roads and ports, disrupting the movement of goods across the region.
The disruption affected warehouses and deliveries, leaving some shops in Campania, Puglia and Calabria struggling to restock essential products. Meat, fresh milk, fruit and bottled water were among the items affected. In some smaller shops, supplies reportedly ran out within a day.
Italy’s latest inflation figures reflect some of the pressure facing consumers. According to preliminary data from the national statistics office, Istat, unprocessed food prices increased by 7.5% in October compared with the same month a year earlier. This was a significant rise from 5.5% in September. The cost of the typical basket of food, household and personal care products also increased by 2.5%, compared with 1.5% the previous month.
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Italy is one of the more striking examples of the recent pressure on food supplies and prices, but the wider trend is becoming visible elsewhere in Europe. After a relatively calm period for grocery inflation, the cost of some food products is moving upwards again.
Energy inflation has attracted much of the attention. Preliminary figures released by Eurostat showed that eurozone inflation reached 4% in October, its highest level in more than three years. Energy prices were the main contributor, rising by 20.8% compared with October last year, as households and businesses faced higher costs for fuel, electricity and heating.
Food inflation, however, has followed a different pattern. Prices of food, alcohol and tobacco in the eurozone increased by 1.6% year on year in October. Across the European Union, food and soft drinks were 0.6% more expensive in September, the latest month for which figures covering all member states were available.
The overall figures do not tell the full story. Processed food, alcohol and tobacco prices in the eurozone increased by just 0.5% in October compared with a year earlier. Unprocessed food, which includes fresh fruit, vegetables, meat and fish, recorded a much sharper increase of 4.6%. That was up from 2.7% in August.
Nicola Nobile, chief Italy economist at Oxford Economics, said energy and food were driving the increase in prices, while underlying inflation remained broadly stable despite the energy shock.
There are practical reasons fresh food can be particularly sensitive to rising energy costs. Agricultural machinery depends on fuel, greenhouses require heating, and fresh products often need refrigerated transport and quick delivery to supermarkets. Higher diesel and electricity costs can therefore affect the price of produce before it reaches the consumer. Unlike many packaged products, fresh food also has a limited shelf life, making supply interruptions more difficult to manage.
The differences are also visible across Europe’s largest economies. In France, overall food prices increased by 1.2% in October, but fresh food prices were 8% higher than a year earlier. Although this was a decline from the 9.5% annual increase recorded in September, the rise remains significant for shoppers who regularly buy fresh produce.
Germany recorded a much smaller increase, with food prices rising by 0.4%. In Portugal, unprocessed food became 3.7% more expensive, unchanged from September. Spain also continued to record higher food prices in October, although the rate of increase was slower than a year earlier.
The latest comparable figures for all EU countries, covering September, reveal even wider differences. Cyprus recorded the highest annual increase in food and soft drink prices, at 4%. Spain followed at 2.7%, while Romania recorded 2.6%. Malta and Portugal registered increases of 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.
Türkiye, which is outside the European Union, experienced a much sharper increase, with food prices rising by 27.6% over the year.
Not every European country experienced higher grocery costs. Food and soft drink prices were lower than a year earlier in 14 of the EU’s 27 member states. Sweden recorded the largest decline, at 6.3%, following a reduction in food VAT.
On 1 April, the Swedish government reduced the VAT rate on food from 12% to 6%. The measure is scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2027. Latvia, Hungary and Czechia also recorded annual declines in food prices, ranging from 3.8% to 4.8%.
However, falling annual inflation does not necessarily mean that groceries have returned to the prices households paid before the recent cost-of-living crisis. The longer-term figures show how much consumers across Europe have already absorbed.
Since September 2021, when energy prices began rising sharply, food prices across the European Union have increased by approximately one-third. The cumulative increase has been considerably higher in parts of Eastern Europe. Hungary has recorded a rise of more than 50%, while Bulgaria, Estonia and Romania have also experienced increases of just over 50%.
The increases have been smaller in some wealthier Western European countries. Luxembourg, Sweden and France have seen cumulative food price rises closer to 25% over the same period.
These differences matter because food represents a larger share of household spending in some countries than in others. A further increase in grocery prices can place considerable pressure on families in cities such as Bucharest and Sofia, where household budgets may have less room to absorb higher everyday costs than those in Luxembourg.
Economists are also warning that the wider inflation picture could deteriorate further. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects eurozone inflation to reach a peak of 4.5% in January and forecasts that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in December.
For European households, the concern is that rising food costs could coincide with higher winter heating bills. Even where annual grocery inflation remains relatively low, increases in fresh produce and other essential items can make weekly shopping more expensive. The latest figures suggest that the pressure is no longer confined to energy bills, and shoppers in several parts of Europe are beginning to feel the difference at the supermarket checkout.
