AfD has secured a commanding victory in Saxony-Anhalt, winning about 44% of the vote in a result that gives Germany’s far-right party its strongest state election performance since it was founded in 2013 and raises the possibility of it leading a state government for the first time in postwar Germany.
The result was a severe setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, which finished a distant second with roughly 18%. The AfD more than doubled its 23.7% share from the previous state election in 2021, underlining the scale of its advance in one of eastern Germany’s most closely watched political contests.
Whether the AfD can turn the victory into control of the state government is still uncertain. The final balance will depend on how many smaller parties secure seats in the state parliament and whether they can form a coalition capable of keeping the AfD out of power.
Speaking to supporters in Magdeburg after the polls closed, AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund said the party had “made history in this state”.
“We have achieved exactly what we wanted to achieve,” he said.
The party presented the result as a mandate to govern. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome historic and said the party would begin discussions with other political groups about forming a government.
That prospect faces a major obstacle. Germany’s established parties have maintained a political firewall against the AfD, refusing to enter governing coalitions with it. The policy has been central to efforts by mainstream parties to prevent the AfD from gaining direct control of government despite its growing electoral support.
The CDU’s defeat was particularly significant because it has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002. State CDU leader Sven Schulze acknowledged the seriousness of the result and said the party would need to respond to the message delivered by voters.
CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann described the result as a defeat but rejected suggestions that it should lead to a reconsideration of Merz’s position at the national level.
Even so, the election adds to the pressure facing the chancellor. Merz’s federal coalition with the Social Democrats has been struggling with weak economic growth and declining public support, and the Saxony-Anhalt result gives another indication of the political challenge facing Germany’s mainstream parties.
SPD leader and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said voters had sent a “signal to Berlin”, linking the state election directly to the wider political debate at the federal level.
The strength of the turnout also gave the result added weight. Participation was reported at around 76.5% by the Guardian, while other projections put it closer to 78%. Broadcaster ZDF estimated during the count that turnout could ultimately exceed 80%.
Saxony-Anhalt, home to about 2.1 million people, was part of communist East Germany before reunification. Like several other eastern German states, it has become an important source of support for the AfD, which has built some of its strongest electoral bases in the former East Germany.
The party’s gains, however, are no longer confined to the east. It has also made advances in western Germany this year and has moved ahead of the conservatives in some national opinion polls, even though the next federal election is not due until 2029.
One recent INSA poll put national support for the AfD at 28%, compared with 20% for the conservatives.
The party’s campaign in Saxony-Anhalt focused heavily on immigration, education and cultural policy. It also opposed the construction of new wind farms and called for closer relations with Russia.
Siegmund has promoted the concept of “remigration”, a term the AfD uses to describe the deportation of people who are in Germany illegally or who have committed crimes. Critics have argued that the policy could be applied more broadly than those groups.
The AfD’s regional organisation in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as right-wing extremist by the state’s domestic intelligence service, a designation the party rejects.
The immediate question is now whether the election result gives the AfD a realistic route into government. That will depend largely on the final seat distribution and the performance of smaller parties.
The left-wing BSW was above the 5% threshold in some early projections, potentially making the party relevant to the coalition arithmetic. BSW has ruled out a formal coalition with the AfD, although it has supported the party on individual policy questions.
If the AfD falls short of an outright majority and remains unable to secure a coalition partner, the CDU and other parties will have to negotiate a multi-party government to prevent the far-right party from taking control of the state administration.
For the AfD, however, the election has already delivered a significant political breakthrough. A party that entered German politics in 2013 has now secured nearly half the vote in a state election and demonstrated the depth of its support in eastern Germany. The question after this victory is no longer simply how large the AfD can become, but whether Germany’s political firewall can continue to keep it from governing.
