The tourism industry adaptation is no longer optional. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned that tourism must confront a world shaped by conflict, natural disasters, and geopolitical uncertainty. Speaking at ITB Berlin 2026, Fischer argued that the assumption of a stable, rules-based international order has vanished. In its place, power politics dominate, with the United States and China asserting influence and India possibly joining their ranks.
Fischer urged tourism leaders to recognize these realities and integrate forward-looking strategies into their planning. “The world will never be free of disasters,” he said, emphasizing that tourism cannot operate as if global crises are rare exceptions. He suggested that industry figures could even play a role in diplomacy, anticipating problems before they escalate.
In his keynote, Fischer expressed regret that he could not offer a more optimistic vision. Wars, political conflicts, and natural disasters are constants. Yet travel itself will persist. People will continue to move across borders, but they will not pay to risk their safety. He referenced the ongoing Iran conflict, noting that Iranian drone attacks on Gulf hotels have made travelers wary. “I expected it,” he said, reflecting on the timing of recent military escalations between the United States, Israel, and Iran. He added that the flight of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington was a clear signal that conflict was imminent, though its outcome remained uncertain.
Fischer, who participated in Iran nuclear negotiations years ago and is married to the daughter of an Iranian opposition figure, highlighted the fragility of the Iranian state. Deep ethnic divisions and longstanding animosities, he said, make civil conflict a real possibility following any regime change. The resulting instability could ripple across the Gulf, affecting not just security but also regional tourism and hospitality.
For Fischer, these realities demand that tourism adopt robust crisis management as a core function. The 2004 tsunami in Thailand serves as a stark lesson. Fischer recalled that at the time, many travelers, embassy staff, and consulate personnel were on holiday, which delayed critical response efforts. Such gaps highlight the need for pre-emptive planning, rapid response protocols, and coordination with diplomatic and security agencies.
“Tourism cannot remain reactive,” Fischer emphasized. Companies must assess risks, avoid dangerous situations, and embed crisis response into their operational procedures. The lessons of past disasters, combined with emerging geopolitical threats, mean that adaptation is not merely a strategic advantage—it is a necessity for survival.
Fischer’s message is clear: the tourism industry faces a period of uncertainty that will require resilience, foresight, and cooperation. Travelers will continue to seek experiences, but the industry must respect their need for safety. Anticipating crises, aligning with broader security measures, and preparing for geopolitical shocks are now fundamental to tourism management. Those who ignore these realities risk exposure to crises that can disrupt travel, undermine trust, and threaten entire markets.
