Finland retail job losses are expected to reach nearly 8,000 by 2026, as the country’s trade sector faces serious disruption from automation, falling consumer demand, and structural shifts in how stores operate.
A fresh forecast by Kaupan liitto, Finland’s leading commerce federation, reveals that roughly five percent of all retail jobs will disappear within two years. Most of these jobs are frontline and support roles that are gradually being replaced by automated systems, digital tools, and AI.
This sharp decline in the retail workforce comes as the country battles weak consumer spending. In February, Kaupan liitto had forecast a 0.5 percent growth in retail sales for the year. That prediction has now flipped. The organization now expects a one percent decline in total retail sales for 2025.
Chief economist Jaana Kurjenoja said the recovery is taking longer than expected, but it is not entirely off track. According to her, Finnish consumers are still holding back due to economic uncertainty, but as their purchasing power improves, signs of recovery should begin to show.
Global political instability is one of the key factors behind weak demand, according to the report. Uncertainty in global markets is making Finnish consumers more cautious, leading to delayed purchases and lower spending overall.
Kaupan liitto believes the situation will eventually improve. Their forecast shows a modest recovery by 2026, with an estimated one percent growth in retail sales. However, even with sales returning to positive numbers, many of the jobs being lost now will not be coming back.
The jobs most at risk include logistics, customer service, cashier positions, and other roles where automation is becoming more cost-effective than human labor. These are not temporary layoffs but permanent structural changes driven by technology.
“Disappearing jobs are above all operational roles and support functions that can be replaced by more effective use of data, AI, and digital development,” the report noted.
So far, no specific companies or regions have been named in the forecast. However, the job losses are expected to spread across all parts of the retail sector. Grocery stores, specialty shops, department stores, and online retailers will all be affected in some form.
Kaupan liitto represents a wide range of employers in Finland’s retail space, from large supermarket chains to smaller niche businesses. Their forecast is not just a warning for store owners, but for policymakers and workers as well. If retail continues to shrink without a clear plan for job transitions, the long-term social impact could be severe.
The shift is not just about numbers. It is about how the country’s economy is evolving. Automation is no longer coming. It is already here, and Finland’s retail workforce is feeling it first.
