President Alexander Stubb declared that Putin’s war in Ukraine has turned into a “complete strategic failure” for President Vladimir Putin, as European leaders convened in Kyiv to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Stubb emphasized that Ukraine has strengthened its position over the past year.
“Ukraine is on the front foot,” Stubb said. “This has been a complete strategic failure for the Russian president.”
He pointed out that Moscow’s early aim to capture Ukraine in days collapsed as the conflict entered its fifth year. Russian advances have covered roughly 60 kilometres in four years, a stark contrast to the rapid offensives of the Second World War.
“We must let go of the narrative that Ukraine will not win this war. It will,” he added.
Stubb called for sustained military and financial support for Kyiv, stronger economic and political pressure on Moscow, and a recalibration of the conflict’s international framing. He urged Europe to assume a more active role in peace negotiations, which have so far involved the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.
“At some point Europe must assume a stronger role in these discussions,” Stubb said, noting ongoing communication with US officials.
He outlined three potential scenarios for the conflict: continuation through this year, a negotiated settlement, or the weakening of one side. “At the moment Russia appears to be weakening,” he said.
Stubb also ruled out any Finnish recognition of territories seized by Russia.
“I can guarantee that Finland will never recognise areas that Russia has occupied. That recognition will never come from Finland,” he said. Finland will support any settlement endorsed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The anniversary visit brought European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa to Kyiv, alongside Nordic and Baltic leaders. The delegation attended a memorial for fallen soldiers and met Zelenskyy, who expressed gratitude for Europe’s ongoing support.
“Our people trust Europe. We know that we are not alone,” Zelenskyy said during a joint briefing. Discussions focused on air defence, energy assistance, and the use of a 90 billion euro EU loan package aimed at supporting Ukraine’s budget and defence needs in 2026 and 2027. Von der Leyen confirmed the loan would proceed despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, which have blocked the measure under unanimity rules.
Hungary has also delayed new sanctions targeting Russian energy revenues. Stubb described interactions with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as frustrating but expressed confidence in reaching a resolution.
The Kremlin marked the anniversary with a statement that Russia will continue its campaign until objectives are met. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the goals of Moscow’s “special military operation” remain unmet. Putin, in a televised address, accused Ukraine and Western intelligence services of targeting Russian infrastructure and warned that adversaries understood the consequences of any nuclear strikes.
Data from the Institute for the Study of War, reported by AFP, show Russia captured over 4,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory during the fourth year of fighting, exceeding gains in the previous two years combined. Russia now controls roughly one fifth of Ukraine, including areas seized prior to February 2022.
A report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 fatalities. Ukrainian losses are estimated between 500,000 and 600,000, including up to 140,000 deaths. Zelenskyy reported 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed over the past four years.
A joint assessment by the World Bank, United Nations, European Commission, and Ukrainian government projects reconstruction costs of 588 billion dollars over the next decade, with direct damage reaching 195 billion dollars.
Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have left large areas without stable power during winter months. Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz reported new drone attacks on gas facilities in the Kharkiv region, marking the 26th assault on its infrastructure this year.
Diplomatic efforts continue without a breakthrough. A second round of trilateral talks in Geneva last week, involving the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, ended without agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed scepticism over the prospects for short-term peace, noting that Russia has shown no readiness to end the war.
