Finland migration forecast figures released by the Finnish Immigration Service indicate that international arrivals linked to education, employment, and humanitarian protection are expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, despite visible slowdowns in some categories.
Data compiled by the agency’s foresight network, a panel of experts that meets three times each year, shows that both student and work-related migration are entering a period of slower growth, while asylum requests are projected to remain at moderate levels.
The outlook is based on confirmed application volumes through October 2025 and wider signs from the Finnish economy and global political developments.
Between January and October 2025, authorities registered 11,839 student residence permit applications. This represents a five percent decline compared with the same period in 2024.
Johannes Hirvela, Director of Information Services at the Finnish Immigration Service, connected the drop directly to new financial requirements imposed on non EU and non EEA applicants.
At the start of 2025, Finland introduced a 100 euro application fee for students applying through the joint higher education system for international admissions. The change, combined with the full tuition cost policy now applied to foreign students, has reduced the rapid growth recorded in earlier years.
Despite the downturn, student migration remains strong in overall terms. The agency expects total applications in 2025 to fall between 13,000 and 14,000. For 2026, figures are forecast to remain close to 13,000.
Education remains one of Finland’s strongest migration channels, supported by the country’s international reputation for academic quality and safety. However, the cost of entry is becoming a more decisive factor. According to analysts, Finland will continue to attract applicants, but not at the explosive rate seen before fees were introduced.
Applications for first time work permits declined more sharply than student visas. From January to October 2025, authorities received 9,593 work-based residence applications. This is a 29 percent drop compared with the same period in 2024, bringing figures close to levels last seen in 2018.
Economic uncertainty appears to be the key reason behind the slowdown. Hirvela pointed to weaker growth, rising unemployment, and global financial pressures as factors discouraging foreign professionals from entering the Finnish market.
Forecasts suggest the total number of first-time work permits will reach around 11,000 by the end of 2025. For 2026, projections range between 11,000 and 13,000, depending on whether the economy begins to recover.
The immigration service warns that employment trends typically change more slowly than economic indicators. Even if Finland’s economy improves, hiring patterns may not adjust immediately. Industries facing skill shortages may recover sooner, while others may remain cautious.
Finland recorded 1,709 first asylum applications between January and October 2025. That is 15 percent fewer than during the same period in 2024.
The decline reflects similar trends across the European Union, where tighter border restrictions and administrative changes in origin countries have reduced overall inflows. In Syria, for example, procedural changes and internal controls have limited outward movement for certain groups.
Across the EU, authorities received approximately 399,000 asylum applications during the first half of 2025.
Despite the slowdown, pressure factors in home countries remain acute. Ongoing conflict, political repression, and poor economic conditions continue to drive migration from regions in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia.
The Finnish Immigration Service expects Finland to continue receiving between 1,500 and 2,500 asylum claims per year through 2026. The agency does not anticipate any dramatic increases unless global conditions deteriorate significantly.
Finland’s migration system is entering a period of consolidation rather than expansion. Education and employment channels remain active, but high costs and economic caution are reshaping who applies and how many proceed.
For policymakers, the forecast suggests fewer surprises and more predictability. For applicants, Finland remains open, but with higher financial and professional barriers.
The next update from the foresight network is expected in early 2026 and may reflect any changes triggered by shifts in the global economy or European migration policy.
