Petrol prices in Finland are heading toward the two-euro mark per litre. The reason behind it has little to do with Finland itself, and everything to do with what’s happening thousands of kilometres away.
Tensions have flared again in the Middle East. A US-led airstrike targeting Iran triggered a global reaction, causing crude oil prices to climb. And while Finland doesn’t rely much on oil from the region, the global price jump is already being felt locally.
Fuel experts are warning that prices could rise by anywhere from 15 to 25 cents per litre. This would push average costs above €2 per litre at the pump, especially if the situation worsens.
One of the major risks comes from the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil flows. If Iran chooses to close it in response to the strike, oil markets could panic.
Kari Liuhto, professor at the Turku School of Economics, believes the increase is inevitable. “I do believe that Finland will see pump prices rise to over two euros,” he said.
Others are slightly more cautious. Jukka Leskelä from Finnish Energy says fuel prices are more likely to feel the pinch than electricity or heating. “It’s unlikely oil alone would push up energy bills here, but it will affect transport fuel prices,” he noted.
Finland may get off lighter than some of its neighbours. Leskelä explains that because Finland uses little gas or coal for power, spikes in global gas prices hurt Central Europe more than they hurt Finland.
But not everyone is optimistic.
University of Helsinki energy specialist Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen points to a deeper issue. He argues that the global oil economy is closely tied to instability. “Russia’s war showed us that oil and violence often go hand in hand. This latest crisis just confirms that link again,” he said.
He also warns that oil-producing states can shake the global economy by simply turning the taps on or off.
Minna Kuusisto, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, says the uncertainty is already seeping into other sectors. “No one really knows what will happen next. That makes all economic decisions harder,” she explained.
If the price of oil remains high, she says, it won’t just be fuel that gets more expensive. Production costs, transport, and the price of basic goods could all go up. That would slow down any kind of economic recovery.
What happens next depends on politics, not markets. But one thing is certain. Petrol prices in Finland are on the rise, and people are already starting to feel it.
