The 1960 Doomsday study predicted that humanity would reach a mathematical breaking point on November 13, 2026, but the forecast was based on population growth patterns that no longer reflect how the world is developing. More than six decades after the prediction was published, the date has arrived without the catastrophe its authors calculated.
The study, titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026″, was published in the scientific journal Science in 1960 by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research colleagues. It examined historical world population figures and used a mathematical formula to project how quickly the number of people on Earth was increasing.
Their calculations suggested that population growth was accelerating at such a rate that the intervals between successive doublings of the human population would continue to become shorter. If that pattern remained unchanged, the mathematical curve would eventually reach infinity on November 13, 2026.
The researchers argued that such a situation would be impossible to sustain. In their deliberately provocative presentation, they suggested that humanity would effectively destroy itself through overpopulation if population growth continued along the same trajectory.
The prediction attracted considerable attention when it was published, partly because of its unusual date. However, the researchers were not claiming that the planet would literally disappear on a Friday the 13th. The date was used to highlight the potential consequences of unchecked population growth, an issue that was receiving considerable attention during that period.
For several decades, the mathematical model appeared to correspond reasonably well with actual population figures. However, the pattern began to change as population growth slowed, particularly from the early 1990s onwards. The assumptions behind the original calculation no longer reflected the changing demographic conditions around the world.
One of the main reasons the prediction failed is that population growth does not remain constant indefinitely. Over the past century, improvements in healthcare, sanitation and living conditions have helped reduce death rates, contributing to rapid population increases. However, birth rates have also declined in many parts of the world as families have started having fewer children.
Global population growth reached its highest annual rate in 1963, when it exceeded two per cent. By 2020, the rate had fallen below one per cent. Although the number of people on Earth continues to increase, the pace of that growth is considerably slower than it was when von Foerster and his colleagues published their research.
United Nations projections also point towards a very different future from the one imagined in the 1960 study. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024, the global population is expected to reach approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining towards the end of the century.
This does not mean that population growth has stopped being an important issue. Governments and researchers continue to examine the pressures that growing populations can place on housing, food supplies, healthcare systems, natural resources and the environment. However, the current demographic outlook is very different from the unlimited growth suggested by the original mathematical model.
The November 13 prediction is also not the first time a specific date has been associated with the end of the world. In 1910, the arrival of Halley’s Comet caused widespread anxiety after reports circulated that toxic gases in its tail could threaten life on Earth. Some businesses took advantage of the public’s fear by selling products such as gas masks, protective pills and so-called comet umbrellas.
More than a century later, similar fears emerged around other predicted apocalyptic dates. American radio preacher Harold Camping predicted that the biblical Judgement Day would take place on May 21, 2011. The date passed without the event he had forecast. December 21, 2012, also attracted worldwide attention because it marked the end of a cycle in the ancient Mayan calendar, which some interpreted as a prediction of global destruction.
Scientific forecasts have also faced criticism when their assumptions have not accounted for changing circumstances. The 1972 report “The Limits to Growth”, produced by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, examined the long-term consequences of population growth, industrialisation, resource consumption and environmental pressures. Its findings raised concerns about whether continued economic and population growth could be sustained within the planet’s physical limits. While some of its projections have been debated, the report remains an important contribution to discussions about resources and environmental sustainability.
The common weakness in many dramatic predictions is the assumption that trends observed in the past will continue unchanged. Mathematical models can identify patterns and explore possible outcomes, but their projections depend on the conditions and assumptions used to produce them. Population growth, in particular, is influenced by changes in healthcare, education, economic conditions, family decisions and government policies.
That is what makes the 1960 Doomsday study interesting more than 60 years after its publication. It was an attempt to draw attention to a serious demographic concern using an alarming mathematical prediction. But humanity did not follow the growth curve its authors expected.
November 13, 2026, therefore, is not the end of the world. It is the date on which a famous mathematical prediction reached its projected deadline, providing another reminder of the limitations of forecasting the future using historical trends alone.
