Exit polls from Israel’s legislative election suggest that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot has secured a clear path to a parliamentary majority, setting the stage for uncertainty over the country’s next government.
Israel’s Channel 13 initially projected that the opposition bloc would win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with about 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The broadcaster later revised the opposition estimate to 52 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to emerge as the largest single party, with 25 seats.
Channel 12, another major Israeli broadcaster, also projected 52 seats for the opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with Likud expected to win 24 seats.
The projections suggest that neither side has the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. However, exit polls are estimates rather than final results, and the balance of power will depend on the official vote count and the ability of parties to negotiate political support.
Arab parties are also projected to make significant gains, with Channel 12 estimating that they could win 18 seats, a record according to the broadcaster. Other exit polls placed their combined total at 17 seats. Their representation could become important in efforts to form a government, although cooperation between Arab parties and the main political blocs remains a significant political question.
The projections prompted competing reactions from opposition and government figures. Eisenkot said in a post on X that the results reflected a “complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government.” His remarks linked the election to public scrutiny of the government’s handling of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, also claimed that voters had delivered their verdict on the government. He said the public had “spoken” and “ousted the Netanyahu government.” However, the exit polls did not establish that a new government could be formed, and the official results remained necessary to determine the distribution of seats.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar urged caution in response to celebrations among opposition supporters, describing them as “premature.” He pointed to Likud’s projected position as the largest individual party in the Knesset, even though the party’s wider bloc was projected to fall short of a majority in several exit polls.
Voter turnout reached 77.7%, according to reporting on figures from Israel’s Central Elections Committee. The election was the country’s first since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, which were followed by a prolonged war in Gaza and wider regional conflict. The high participation rate marked the strongest turnout in more than two decades, according to Reuters.
Netanyahu spent much of election day urging his supporters to vote, describing the contest as a “matter of life and death.” The campaign took place against a backdrop of public debate over the government’s security record, its response to the October 7 attacks and the conflicts that followed.
The election is widely viewed as a test of Netanyahu’s leadership, but the exit polls leave the immediate political outcome unresolved. In Israel’s parliamentary system, the largest party does not automatically form the government. A governing coalition needs the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset, making negotiations between parties central to the process.
The final seat count and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu can remain in office, whether Eisenkot can assemble sufficient support for an alternative government, or whether the political deadlock leads to another election.
