Europe is expected to strengthen its position as a global tourism powerhouse over the next decade, with demand for tourist accommodation forecast to grow by 32% between 2026 and 2036, according to a new report commissioned by hospitality group Accor.
The report, titled “The Changing Face of Europe’s Tourism Map to 2036”, draws on research from Tourism Economics and predicts that the continent will gain an additional 1.6 billion overnight stays annually over the period. Hotel accommodation demand is expected to grow slightly faster, rising by 33%.
The projections point to continued growth in a region that already attracts more international visitors than any other part of the world. Europe welcomed 810 million international visitors in 2025, accounting for 53% of global international tourist arrivals and generating more than EUR 700 billion in international tourism receipts, according to the figures cited in the report.
Accor attributes Europe’s enduring appeal to its wide range of travel experiences, established tourism infrastructure and the movement of visitors between countries. Major cities, coastal resorts, ski destinations, national parks, historic sites and food and cultural events all contribute to the region’s appeal to different types of travellers.
The report also suggests that tourism growth will not be evenly distributed across visitor groups. Overnight stays by international travellers in all types of tourist accommodation are forecast to increase by 42% over the next decade, compared with 24% among domestic travellers. The difference suggests that cross-border travel will play an increasingly important role in the expansion of Europe’s tourism market.
Despite the anticipated growth in long-haul travel, visitors from within Europe are expected to account for most arrivals. Intra-European travel is projected to represent 77% of arrivals by 2036, highlighting the importance of regional mobility to the continent’s tourism economy.
Germany is forecast to become Europe’s largest source market for tourist arrivals, accounting for 14% of the total. British travellers are expected to represent 8%, followed by French and American visitors at 5% each. The Netherlands is projected to account for a further 4%.
These travel patterns are also expected to shape demand in individual countries. German travellers are forecast to become the largest source market for both France and Poland. Dutch visitors are expected to lead among international source markets for Germany, while British travellers are projected to form the largest source market for Spain. For the United Kingdom, American visitors are expected to become the leading source market.
Established destinations such as France, Germany and the UK are expected to remain important to the European tourism industry. However, the report also points to faster growth in countries that have a smaller share of the continent’s established tourism markets.
Azerbaijan is forecast to record a 116% increase in international accommodation nights over the next decade. Latvia is projected to see growth of 83%, while Romania is expected to record an 82% increase. These forecasts suggest that demand could expand beyond Europe’s most established destinations, although the projections alone do not establish how much additional tourism revenue each country will generate.
The expected growth in these markets could create opportunities for hotels, tour operators and other tourism businesses seeking to serve travellers interested in destinations beyond Europe’s traditional hotspots. Realising that potential will depend on factors including transport connections, accommodation capacity and the ability of destinations to manage rising visitor numbers.
Demand from markets outside Europe is also forecast to increase substantially. Arrivals from the Middle East are projected to rise by 93% over the next decade, while arrivals from Asia are expected to grow by 88%. Within these markets, Chinese arrivals to Europe are forecast to increase by 138%, while visitor numbers from Saudi Arabia are expected to rise by 55%.
The outlook extends to other regions as well. Arrivals from Africa are projected to grow by 46%, while South American arrivals are expected to increase by 42%. North American arrivals are forecast to rise by 26%.
Together, these projections point to a European tourism industry increasingly shaped by both regional travel and growing demand from international markets. While travellers from neighbouring countries are expected to remain the main source of arrivals, stronger growth from Asia and the Middle East could broaden the mix of visitors and increase demand for accommodation across a wider range of destinations.
The forecasts are based on projected travel demand rather than guaranteed outcomes. Economic conditions, transport links, geopolitical developments and changes in traveller behaviour could influence how closely the market follows the report’s expectations. Nevertheless, Accor’s outlook indicates that Europe is expected to retain its central role in global tourism through 2036, with growth extending beyond its most familiar destinations.
